Saturday, December 24, 2005
Oil $57 in 2006, $43 in 2010?
Reuters has conducted a poll of 30 oil analysts asking them to forecast the price of benchmark U.S. light crude oil futures in 2006. The price will average $57.34 a barrel. In 2005 the forecast was $57.03. Actual average prices were: for 2005 - $56.63, for 2004 - $41.47. The analysts were remarkably accurate in 2005. I will try to locate the predictions for 2004 just to see how often these analysts are correct.
oil peak+oil hubbert+theory oil+forecast oil+futures
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Ok, the prediction for 2006 looks reasonable to me. But what struck me is the consensus that longer term the prices are expected to go down:”U.S. oil prices were expected to average $42.53 in 2010, with Brent crude seen at $38.45 a barrel. Analysts' forecasts showed divergence of $25 for 2010. Goldman Sachs was the highest, forecasting U.S. crude prices would be at $60 a barrel. The lowest forecast from NAB put prices at $35 in 2010”
Basically, none of the analysts believes in the Hubbert Oil Peak Theory. This is totally amazing to me. I expected at least some analysts to be super-bullish on oil. As for myself, I am certainly in the Hubbert Peak camp.
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2 comments:
This article how on denial could explain their behavior:
You can witness this brain duality in operation while watching debates between some of the dominant personalities of our culture, mainly those representing large financial and business interests, and the concerned watchers and interpreters of physical reality, mainly scientists in the realms of ecology, geology and climatology. Because the scientists are challenging fundamental assumptions of our culture, such as the basis for "progress" and the consequences of "economic growth," many cannot agree with the scientists without losing their identity. This threat to the mental model is simply too great to accept. Hence you encounter two modes of response from those accepting of the prevailing paradigm: (1) the scientific data are not reliable, and (2) faith in technological progress and/or human ingenuity.
http://www.energybulletin.net/3948.html
Who knows what will happen? PO maybe off for another 20 years.
Nice article.
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