AMGN Elliott Update (Buy at 81.05, stop loss 78.15)

Again we are at an ambiguous point with two reasonable wave counts. This situation is very similar to our forecast on October 30. 1) This scenario is a continuation of our preferred count last week. We observe the end of the correction wave (or part of the correction wave) and in the next few days the price will go upwards. Now we possibly see Wave 3 of the impulse within zigzag pattern and it is expected to complete in the price range 86.14 to 134.42, but more probably between 88.08 and 100.57. This wave is most likely to complete sometime between 14-Dec-2005 and 06-Jan-2006 Note that it cannot complete until 12-Dec-2005 but must complete by 10-Mar-2006. ...Read more When completed, expect the stock to pull back into wave 4, which will be corrective in nature and has a probability of 83% of being a Flat or other sideways pattern. After wave 4, expect wave 5 to move beyond the end of wave 3 to complete this Impulse, which will also complete zigzag pattern. 2) The alternative scenario assumes that the current zigzag pattern was completed on 22-Nov-2005 although the price did not reach high probability price zone for the higher degree double zigzag wave. In such a case the stock should continue down in the impulsive wave as it was described in the Scenario 2 on October 30. Trading strategy Currently the price is in the oversold territory and in principle we have been waiting for such an opportunity to enter long, however we would not like to be in a situation when we could buy the stock in the middle of a strong bearish move. It is also true that we would not like to miss potential strong bullish move to above 90. 1. Buy at 81.05, stop loss 78.15, profit target 95.0 2. Update short term scenario daily to figure out changes in the preferred scenario and either find better entry price for a long position or change our outlook for the bearish scenario.