Forecasting Oil: $57 , $59, ..., $100 maybe?

Apparently the same analysts who forecasted $57 oil in 2006 and $43 in 2010 just two months ago are quick to raise their forecasts: "Oil prices are likely to average about $59 a barrel this year, up from $56.70 last year, according to a Reuters poll of 32 analysts this week..." I am wondering if the Peak Oil theory is actually correct and what we are seeing now is just the tip of the iceberg. Could problems in Nigeria and Iran be just convinient explanations for the oil price rise, but the real problems are much deeper and can't be solved by resolving Nigerian and Iranian troubles? oil peak+oil hubbert+theory oil+forecast oil+futures