Sells Signals for GTOP and EXEL

I am adding GTOP and EXEL to my Biotech-Oncology portfolio as short positions. Sell short 1200 shares of GTOP and 1200 shares of EXEL at the market open on 30-Nov-05. Stop losses set at 10% higher than the respective entry price for each stock.

AMGN (Amgen) long position closed

AMGN entered long on 31-Oct-05 @75.96, closed position 28-Nov-05 at the market open @82.26 for 8.3% profit.

Amgen Elliott Wave Update (closing long position)

Trading strategy Probably the trading strategy in this case strongly depends on the psychology of the investor. It may be a good idea to keep the stock and wait for the wave 3. However wave 2 has very good chances to complete below out current stop loss locking smaller profit. I would fill more comfortable by closing this position at the market open on Monday. 1. Close position at open. 2. Look for an opportunity to open long position when the price drops to about 80. ...Read more Elliott Analysis for AMGN Long and medium term outlook did not change. In the short term we have probably observed the end of the fifth wave of the impulsive structure and the beginning of the correction pattern. It is not very likely that this fifth wave completed zigzag in the longer time frame because price did not touch high probability zone of the zigzag and high probability price zone of the double zigzag in even longer time frame is still to be touched. Therefore in the short time frame we are probably observing Wave 2 of the Impulse which should complete in the price range 73.13 to 83.0219, but more probably between 78.1328 and 81.9986. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 03-Feb-2006, but is most likely to complete before 30-Nov-2005. After this wave 2 is complete, expect the stock to continue up into wave 3. Wave 3 should always be an Impulse and should retrace wave 2 completely. Expect wave 3 to retrace wave 2 by 164% - 383%. Wave 3 can also be expected to be 83% - 383% of the price length of wave 1.

Alcoa (AA) Elliott Update

Trading strategy The ambiguity of the forecast in the very short time frame should not affect our trading strategy since the overall forecast is bullish and now the price is in the overbought territory, which means that even it could be the third wave of an impulse, it might be wise to stay aside and wait for another trading opportunity with better risk/reward ratio. 1. We will seek to open long position when an oscillator will be in the oversold territory. 2. Price move to about 25 will support our primary scenario....Read more Elliott Analysis for Alcoa There is no change of the outlook for this stock. However, we could not find a comfortable entry point for taking long position with good risk/reward ratio. Previous week did not provide such an opportunity and even created some ambiguity for analysis in the very short time frame. We have two alternative scenarios that could be unfolding. 1. According to the first possible scenario in the very short time frame – we observe Wave (B) of the Flat and it is expected to complete in the price range 26.58 to 29.39, but more probably between 26.6 and 27.11. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 19-Dec-2005, but is most likely to complete before 28-Nov-2005. After wave (B) is complete, expect the stock to continue down into wave (C). It will complete corrective Wave 2 which is expected to complete in the price range 22.28 to 26.23, but more probably between 24.28 and 25.82. This wave was expected to complete before 22-Nov-2005, and must complete by 20-Jan-2006. After this wave 2 is complete, expect the stock to continue up into wave 3. 2. We had already observed completion of Wave 2, which was rather short and now the stock price is in the Wave 3 of an Impulse and it should complete in the price range 28.48 to 32.12, but more probably between 29.13 and 30.39. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 09-Jan-2006, but is most likely to complete before 06-Dec-2005.

Citigroup Elliott Wave Update

Trading strategy 1. We will continue to look for an opportunity to open short poison. 2. If the stock is still within wave 3 that will be followed by well defined correction pattern, we may be willing to open long position with the target below 52.80....Read more Elliott Analysis for C We were watching the behavior of this stock with great curiosity during last week. The development of the pattern is still within our preferred scenario, and the price high was 49.76 – slightly below the resistance line and a price range for potential entry short position and slightly below invalidation point of our current outlook which is at 52.88. According to the preferred count in the short time frame we observe Wave 5 of the Primary degree Impulse that is expected to complete in the price range 48.06 to 58.64, but more probably between 49.28 and 52.86. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 07-Dec-2005, but is most likely to complete before 02-Dec-2005. Or the price action is in the Wave (5) of the Intermediate degree Impulse which should complete in the price range 47.81 to 57.07, but more probably between 48.59 and 51.02. This wave was expected to complete before 23-Nov-2005, and must complete by 07-Dec-2005. This is the final wave in the pattern. When completed, it will also complete wave 3 of the Primary degree Impulse. These two waves have the same target ranges. After that the price will still have potential to rise, but it should remain below invalidation point of the longer term scenario.

Apple (AAPL) Elliott Wave Analysis

Analysis of Apple stock price is not very congruent within the methodology I am using, however I am intrigued by the stock behavior. It does not look hopeless either and therefore I decided to watch it for a while more closely. NOTE: the main inconsistency is related to the starting point of the impulsive structure which does not fit well with the general pattern for US stocks. The impulse starts in 1997 rather than in 1987. This may imply some limitations for the projected time and price zones in the long time frame. Trading Strategy No trading yet. Just get some feel on how the stock behaves in the context of Elliott Analysis. ...Read more Elliott Analysis Long term: The corrective pattern for the price action has finished and now the price is in the Wave (III) of the Supercycle degree Impulse that is expected to complete in the price range 45.72 to 225.55, but more probably between 51.65 and 97.32. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 30-Dec-2011, but is most likely to complete before 12-Nov-2008. Then expect the stock to pull back into wave (IV), which will be corrective in nature and has a probability of 84% of being a Flat or other sideways pattern. Wave (IV) should not retrace back into the price range of wave (I) or (II). After wave (IV), expect wave (V) to move beyond the end of wave (III) to complete this Impulse. Medium term: The price is in the Wave III of the Cycle degree Impulse which should complete in the price range 53.82 to 142.84, but more probably between 59.68 and 92.08. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 31-Jan-2007, but is most likely to complete before 05-Jun-2006. Then expect the stock to pull back into wave IV, which will be corrective in nature After wave IV, expect wave V to move beyond the end of wave III to complete this Impulse which will also complete Wave (III) of the Supercycle degree Impulse (long term). Short term: Wave 3 of the Primary degree Impulse is expected to complete in the price range 57.96 to 107.41, but more probably between 61.25 and 77.91. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 22-Feb-2006, but is most likely to complete before 21-Dec-2005. Shorter time frame forecast is rather uncertain. Probably the price is in the Wave 5 and it will complete in the price range 60.36 to 89.56, but more probably between 63.81 and 72.92. This wave was expected to complete before 17-Nov-2005 and must complete by 2-Dec-2005. When completed, it will also complete wave 3 of the higher degree pattern. Taking into account that previous correction waves were relatively short both in time and price ranges, we should expect extended correction patterns for waves 4. They may provide low risk opportunities for trading within the price channels.

Amgen Elliott Wave Update

Trading strategy 1. Move stop loss to 80.3 If the stop loss is hit we will update the outlook. There is no change in the outlook compared to the previous week. The price is moving to the target area. Probably now we observe the final fifth wave in the impulsive structure of a zigzag which should complete at around 90. Our trading strategy would be to lock in potential profit by setting stop loss approximately one average true range below the close price. It roughly corresponds to the end of the potential corrective wave 4 in the current pattern.

Citigroup Elliott Wave Update

Trading strategy Look for an opportunity to enter short once the price fail to break the resistance at 50. Watch stock behavior and confirm the completion of the pattern before final decision. The price movement so far confirms our outlook. The stock entered high probability price and time target zone during the past week and very likely it is in the final wave 5 of the impulsive pattern that should complete the corrective wave in the longer time frame. After that we expect a decline of the price. There is a possibility however that the stock is still in the corrective wave 4 and after the second intermediate correction it may rise and then we again expect a strong move down. Therefore, we will watch closely the stock behavior near the resistance line at 50 and try to enter short if updated scenario supports the completion of the current pattern.

Alcoa Elliott Wave Update

Trading strategy 1. Use an oscillator signal to enter long when the price drops below 25.7 (preferably 25). 2. Before entering long, update the forecast to check if the outlook has not changed. The pattern of AA stock price unfolds within our previous scenario and there are no strong reasons so far to change the scenario. We will continue to seek an opportunity to enter long at approximately 25 when the current corrective move will be accomplished. However we may update trading strategy should the price close above 27 during the next week.

Updated: Oncology-Biotech Portfolio

TELK and CEGE long positions closed

Sell to close 250 shares of TELK and 1500 shares of CEGE at the market open on Nov 16.

C (Citigroup) forecast using Elliott Waves

Trading Strategy According to the preferred scenario, the stock has further potential to rise and probably one could even pull some profit out of such a move, however, if the outlook is correct, this growth may suddenly change into the sharp decline of the price. 1. Unless the market will provide a good opportunity to enter long in the nearest one or two weeks, we will wait for the completion of the current wave and opening short position.2. Watch the stock behavior on daily basis. 3. Should the price reach 52.88 than it means that the current outlook is totally wrong....Read more C outlook Long term C is still in the correction Wave II of the Grand Supercycle degree Impulse which is expected to complete in the price range 1.54 to 48.18, but more probably between 25.12 and 43.35. This wave is expected to complete before 04-May-2005, and must complete by 14-Oct-2033. After this wave II is complete, expect the market to continue up into wave III. Wave III should always be an Impulse and should retrace wave II completely. Medium Term In the medium term the stock is most likely in the Wave (c) of the Supercycle degree Flat which should be the impulsive wave that is expected to complete at a price no higher than 41.24, but more probably no higher than 25.56. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 04-Jul-2014, but is most likely to complete before 04-Apr-2006. In the shorter term we observe development of the Wave II of the inverted Impulse which is expectedto complete in the price range 43.39 to 52.88, but more probably between 44.47 and 48.13. This wave was expected to complete before 31-Dec-2004, and must complete by 02-Jun-2006. After this wave II is complete, expect the market to continue down into wave III, corrective wave IV and final wave V which will complete the Wave (c) and the Wave II of the Grand Supercycle. Note: that corrective flat pattern is interchangeable with double 3 and they are different only with respect to the final wave that should be corrective for double three and impulsive for the flat. The target price range is quite similar for both patterns, however considering double 3 as an alternative may give slightly different scenario in the short term. Short Term Currently the stock is in the Wave c of the inverted Flat. It is expected to complete in the price range 44.29 to 57.13, but more probably between 47.74 and 53.15. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 19-Jul-2007, but is most likely to complete before 06-Feb-2006. This wave will also complete Wave II of the higher order (Medium term). Wave c ought to be an impulse and now C is in the Wave 3 of the Impulse and it is expected to complete in the price range 46.57 to 52.88, but more probably between 46.97 and 50.73. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 07-Feb-2006, but is most likely to complete before 25-Nov-2005. Note: if the alternative scenario with double three is considered, the stock is in the high probability zone of the wave d of the contracting triangle and it means that it may change the direction into the wave e any time. This would be the final wave which will complete D3.

AMGN Elliott Wave Update

Trading Strategy 1. Move stop loss to 78.5 to lock in 50% of the profit. 2. Watch closely AMGN behavior during the week - although it has a potential for further growth, the stock is in the overbought territory and one can not exclude correction in the nearest future. 3. If the stop loss is hit we will update the outlook. AMGN outlook Apparently, we observe Scenario 2 in progress with the potential target area at least above 85.4 and likely above 92. At this moment there is no solid background for more accurate forecast of price target zones. In the very short term a mild correction is possible during the next week. Depending on the price action we will either keep our long position open or will exit by locking 50% of profits and will seek for an opportunity to re-enter long again at lower price.

AA (Alcoa) Elliott Wave Update

Trading strategy 1. Use an oscillator signal to enter long when the price drops below 25.7 (preferably 25). 2. Before entering long, update the forecast to check if the outlook will not have changed. AA Outlook There is no a significant change in the outlook for AA compared to the previous week. The stock is rising and has a potential for higher price. However, it is in the overbought territory and entering a trade in such situation would be uncomfortable. We will seek an opportunity to enter long during a short term correction preferably when the entry point is supported by RSI or stochastic. One would expect an approximate price range for the convenient entry point to be around 25, although it may change if the price continues to move upwards.

Oncology-Biotech Portfolio Update

Other recent trades (not part of the Oncology-Biotech Portfolio): MEDX open long Oct 28 @8.22, closed Nov 4 @9.30, profit 13.1% GERN open long Oct 28 @8.74, closed Nov 4 @9.05, profit 3.5% AMGN open long Oct 31 @75.96, position is still open (11-Nov closing price 81.10) I am very happy with the system so far. Of course, two weeks is too short period of time. But it is good to see that 3 out of 4 positions are very positive and only one is flat (CEGE). AMGN entry was predicted by a separate approach that relies on Elliott Waves.

TELK (Telik) taking profit

TELK long position 500 shrs opened Nov 1st @14.86 Sell to close 250 shrs at market open Nov 11 Move stop to 15.90 for the remaining 250 shrs

AMGN (Amgen) Elliott Wave forecast

Trading strategy: We entered long on 31-Oct-2005 at 75.96. Since then the stock went down to 73.84 and then closed at 79.19 at the end of the week. 1. Move stop loss to break even at 75.96. Leave take profit at 99.90. 2. When the price moves below 72.37 resistance, enter short at 72.30 withthe stop loss 73.20 and profit target 58.0. 3. Follow the market and define which scenario is in development. 4. If the market hits the stop loss, we will update the trading plan. Amgen outlook: The outlook for this stock has not much changed since last weekend. Perhaps bullish scenarios have become more probable. However, the price is still in the high probability range of the correction wave 2 of the inverted impulse and it may go down in the nearest future. Although the price is already outside the high probability time range for correction wave 2, it still potentially has about two months to complete.

AA (Alcoa) Elliott forecast

AA (Alcoa) trading strategy Seek an opportunity to enter long. Place stop loss at 22.15 (if price reaches this point, it means that the current outlook is totally wrong). You may also try to enter long at open, although the potential drawdown could be more than 10%. Profit Target at 39.40.AA Outlook Long term: Currently AA is in the incomplete Wave II of the Grand Super-cycle degree Impulse which is expected to complete in the price range .7 to 39.85, but more probably between 20.5 and 35.8. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 05-Sep-2063, but is most likely to complete before 26-Dec-2008. After this wave II is complete, expect the market to continue up into wave III. Wave III should always be an Impulse and should retracewave II completely. Expect wave III to retrace wave II by 164% - 383%. Medium Term: Wave (b) of the Super-cycle degree Flat is expected to complete in the price range 36.72 to 90.93, but more probably between 37.28 and 51.6. This wave was expected to complete before 04-Jun-2004, and must complete by 24-Jan-2012. After wave (b) is complete, expect the market to continue down into wave (c), which should be a five wave Impulsive pattern. Short term: Wave (c) of the inverted Flat is expected to complete in the price range 26.42 to 69.64, but more probably between 36.62 and 56.07. This wave is most likely to complete sometime between 26-Dec-2005 and 22-Dec-2006 Note that it cannot complete until 05-Dec-2005 but must complete by 21-Aug-2009. This wave will also complete Wave (b) of the Super-cycle degree Flat and afterwards the market will move down in the impulsive wave, which would accomplish the current correction. Although the outlook for the next few months is bullish, there is an uncertainty for the very short time frame of several days up to two weeks. The stock price may continue to rise higher, however the price follows the upper Bollinger band and oscillators show that AA is probably in the overbought range. This means that soft range correction to 24-25 is possible at any moment. If you decide to buy at open, the potential drawdown may develop to 22.30 (if this outlook is correct).

Is Dendreon worth more without Provenge?

This is perhaps a startling thought to many people. But while I do find it provocative, it is perhaps not very far-fetched and has its merits. Of course, if one believes that Provenge is a guaranteed blockbuster than the thought is simply absurd. But if one takes what I consider a more realistic view that the path to Provenge’s success is extremely difficult then, perhaps, getting rid of Provenge is not such a bad idea. Dendreon is burning close to 100 million dollars per year, with most of the money going to Provenge clinical trials, building manufacturing facilities for Provenge, preparing the sales force for Provenge, etc. Provenge, Provenge, Provenge – everything else seems to be on the back burner. While the company still has cash at the moment, it is running out of it fast. In fact, the money will have to be raised sometime in 2006, before or soon after the launch of Provenge. Dendreon will likely to be starving for cash till 2008 before the money from the Provenge sales may start trickling down. And what if the trickle is very meager? Two-three years from now new cheaper drugs could well outcompete Provenge and reduce it to a fancy expensive drug with limited patient base. There are several competitors that could bring their drugs relatively soon after Provenge hits the market. Prostvac-VF from Therion, GVAX from Cell Genesys (CEGE), and DN-101 from Novacea come to mind. While these drugs are likely to be approved after Provenge, they will most likely be much cheaper to produce because they are not custom-manufactured for each patient. With so many drugs targeting the prostate cancer, the ability of a company to deliver drugs that are competitive price-wise could be the most critical for winning a substantial share of the market. I would go as far as to suggest that the scenario according to which Provenge is not even able to pay for the cost of its own development is quite likely. At the same time, the cash that Dendreon has now could be used to more speedily pursue highly promising Trp8 inhibitors that are currently in the pre-clinical development. ~130M in cash is large enough to push Trp8 program well into phase II clinical trials. It may be unfortunate that the money will be spent on Provenge, a possible money sink with no meaningful return to the shareholders. DNDN should continue to produce good setup for the short-term trader but it may not be such a great play for the long-term investor.

Update: GERN, MEDX positions closed

MEDX open long Oct 28 @8.22, closed Nov 4 @9.30, profit 13.1% GERN open long Oct 28 @8.74, closed Nov 4 @9.05, profit 3.5% Profit calculations do not include commissions and slippage.

Closing MEDX and GERN

Exiting MEDX and GERN positions at the open Nov 4th.

How soon will we see antagomirs in the clinic? Is Alnylam a Buy?

Are antagomirs the best compounds that could be practical for treating multiple human diseases? Could companies like Alnylam (ALNY) initiate first clinical trials using antagomirs relatively soon? I believe the answers to both questions are yes. The paper published a couple of days ago by the scientists from Alnylam, the Rockefeller, and NY University (see the abstract below) provides perhaps the most convincing evidence from animal studies that RNAi-related approaches could be practical for treating multiple human diseases. While the experiments were done in mice, there is little doubt that the approach could be tailored to humans. Two points in the paper are critical. First, there is very specific and potent inhibition of the targeted miRNAs. Second, the application of the “drug”, antagomir, delivered via simple intravenous injection, affected most tissues in the animals. Both the amounts of antagomirs introduced and the delivery method (intravenous injection) are likely feasible for humans. When could the first clinical trials be initiated in humans? Now that there is an antagomir tool to knock down miRNAs, what we need are target miRNAs that could be involved in human diseases. While there are many protein coding genes known or suspected to be involved in various diseases, almost nothing is known about miRNAs in this respect. But, this is going to change were quickly via research in the academia and the industry. There are already examples of miRNAs implicated in cancer. For instance, miRNA let-7 is a suspected tumor suppressor. Knocking out a tumor suppressor won’t stop cancer. So other miRNAs that are required for cancer survival and not cancer suppression are needed. I am sure the research to locate such miRNAs is in high gear already. We will probably see the first clinical trials using antigomirs in the 1-2 years. Simple calculation shows that the antagomir dose used on mice (80 mg/kg) translates to about 6 g/injection for an adult person. Now, with 6 g/dose what could be the price tag to synthesize compounds like antagomirs? Antagomir synthesis is essentially the same as synthesis of modified RNA oligonucleotides. My estimates are that antagomirs could cost around 1000$/g or 6,000$/dose for humans. So, even if the drug’s effect could last around a month like in mice, the medicine is still pricey. Of course, the price should come down as the scale of the synthesis is increased but I still see the expensive price of synthesis as a potential problem for commercialization of antagomir-base therapies. Nature. 2005 Oct 30; [Epub ahead of print] Silencing of microRNAs in vivo with 'antagomirs' Krutzfeldt J, Rajewsky N, Braich R, Rajeev KG, Tuschl T, Manoharan M, Stoffel M.Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, The Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue,New York, New York 10021, USA. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are an abundant class of non-coding RNAs that are believed tobe important in many biological processes through regulation of gene expression.The precise molecular function of miRNAs in mammals is largely unknown and abetter understanding will require loss-of-function studies in vivo. Here we showthat a novel class of chemically engineered oligonucleotides, termed'antagomirs', are efficient and specific silencers of endogenous miRNAs in mice.Intravenous administration of antagomirs against miR-16, miR-122, miR-192 andmiR-194 resulted in a marked reduction of corresponding miRNA levels in liver,lung, kidney, heart, intestine, fat, skin, bone marrow, muscle, ovaries andadrenals. The silencing of endogenous miRNAs by this novel method is specific,efficient and long-lasting. The biological significance of silencing miRNAs withthe use of antagomirs was studied for miR-122, an abundant liver-specific miRNA.Gene expression and bioinformatic analysis of messenger RNA fromantagomir-treated animals revealed that the 3' untranslated regions ofupregulated genes are strongly enriched in miR-122 recognition motifs, whereasdownregulated genes are depleted in these motifs. Analysis of the functionalannotation of downregulated genes specifically predicted that cholesterolbiosynthesis genes would be affected by miR-122, and plasma cholesterolmeasurements showed reduced levels in antagomir-122-treated mice. Our findingsshow that antagomirs are powerful tools to silence specific miRNAs in vivo andmay represent a therapeutic strategy for silencing miRNAs in disease. PMID: 16258535 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]