Sunday, December 04, 2005

Note about the system based on the Elliott Wave Analysis

Currently I am watching closely three stocks (AMGN, AA and C). Also I have applied Elliott Wave approach to AAPL because I became curious about its behavior. So far I have quite ambiguous feeling about Elliott Analysis approach – I am happy with clear outlook and understanding of what is going on with stocks as long as they follow one of the preferred scenarios, but at the same time I am not satisfied with an important issue of limited number of trade signals, an issue that can make real life trading uncomfortable. Consequently, it is somewhat difficult to stick to a trading plan based on the Elliott Wave analysis methodology. ...Read more Let me explain it. Elliott analysis does not generate many entry points. If I consider my typical investment style, then the entry price, suggested stop loss and exit price would transform to the following numbers: Risk – 2% of main capital, Return – 8.3% on the invested capital and 3.5% on the main capital, invested capital 40% without margin. With the stocks I have looked so far I have had only clear trading signal for AMGN. And now after closing AMGN position, I ended up with 100% cash position in USD and it happens that USD is becoming weaker right starting from this week. Basically, I need to expand my stock selection process to cover more stocks. The first thing I would like to do in the future is to create a broad portfolio of stocks for trading based on the Elliott wave analysis. I would like to have plenty of trading signals and to be able to select among those opportunities the trades with better risk/reward ratios and to screen out stocks based on the correlation of their price action to minimize overall risk. In the nearest one or two months I will focus on the creation of such a portfolio by analyzing different stocks and watching them to figure out the most likely Elliott counts. If you believe that a stock follows well Elliott wave behavior, please let me know either by e-mail or in the comments to this post.

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