Sunday, December 18, 2005

Alcoa Elliott Update

Trading strategy 1. Keep the current short position with the stop loss at 29.00, take profit at 26.50. 2. If the stop is hit, update outlook and be ready to enter long. Elliott Details It is likely that on the same day we entered our short position the wave 4 was completed and now the price is in the fifth bullish wave that should complete in the price range 28.66 to 34.39, but more probably between 29.90 and 32.58. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 09-Jan-2006, but is most likely to complete before 21-Dec-2005. ...Read more The alternative count assumes that the first wave of higher degree is completed and we observe a correction wave that should complete in the price range 22.28 to 28.08, but more probably between 25.21 and 27.48. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 11-Apr-2006, but is most likely to complete before 21-Dec-2005. We can not distinguish between these two scenarios based on the end of day data right now. The price level of 29 is the invalidation point for the second scenario therefore we will stick to the initial trading plan but if the stop loss is hit, we will revise outlook before taking long position.

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