Sunday, January 08, 2006

Wondering about the market

Elliott Analysis posted on Forex Lab Notebook Blog suggests that S&P 500 could move to and above 1400 (~10% from the current level) in the next few months: “In short, the index will continue to rise in the next 1-6 month to 1400 or higher. Then it will drop to about 1000. Although it will have almost 20 years to complete the correction and it may stage a long recession, most likely the market decline will be relatively fast in the impulsive wave pattern”. I find this type of scenario somewhat disturbing since my systems have shown noticeable short bias in the last month or so. My model biotech portfolio only has two short positions at the moment (IMCL and GTOP). 10% move in S&P 500 would surely induce stop losses in both positions. I already had several short positions that were stopped out recently. And I am wondering if in this particular type of market that are having today my trading system simply generate sell signals prematurely. My plan right now is to keep the open positions and watch the market for a month or so. At that point I will re-analyze the system and will see if any tweaks are necessary. Meanwhile, if there are good long or short signals I will keep posting them. Categories: , , , , , , , , , ,

1 comment:

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