Some Stock Picks will be found on Carnal Stock

Some of my Biotech Stock Picks can soon be found on Carnal Stock and Carnal Stock Blog . I have been busy working on my trading systems and I am pretty happy with the results I got so far. I hope you can find the info and the new site useful.

Forecasting Oil: $57 , $59, ..., $100 maybe?

Apparently the same analysts who forecasted $57 oil in 2006 and $43 in 2010 just two months ago are quick to raise their forecasts: "Oil prices are likely to average about $59 a barrel this year, up from $56.70 last year, according to a Reuters poll of 32 analysts this week..." I am wondering if the Peak Oil theory is actually correct and what we are seeing now is just the tip of the iceberg. Could problems in Nigeria and Iran be just convinient explanations for the oil price rise, but the real problems are much deeper and can't be solved by resolving Nigerian and Iranian troubles? oil peak+oil hubbert+theory oil+forecast oil+futures

Trading Summary

I have decided to organize the trades I talked about in the last few months. I report all my stock picks before the market opens on the corresponding yahoo message boards (TELK is mentioned on TELK message board and so on). My nick on MB is trading_signal. Usually I enter my positions at the market open. Position exits are also at the market open unless a pre-set stop-loss or stop-profit is hit during the day. To monitor performance of various trading systems I separate my positions based on the systems that have generated them. When I started posting I planned to create a model Biotech-Oncology portfolio based on several of my trading systems. Looking back I see that these systems could not generate enough signals to fill in a portfolio. The starting value of the portfolio was assumed to be $100K and each position is typically equivalent to $10K. In the future I will be adding several more systems that hopefully will allow me to generate enough biotech stock picks to keep a reasonable portfolio. In the table below each profit/loss is for a single position, equivalent ~1/10 of the total portfolio value. So, for example, 50% loss in ABGX translates to 5% portfolio loss. The second table monitors my picks based on Elliott analysis and the third keeps track of various other systems. Biotech-Oncology Stock Picks

Stock	Long/Short	Entry Date	Entry Price	Exit Date	Exit Price	# Shares	Profit/Loss
TELK	Long	11/1/2005	14.86	11/11/2005	16.51	250	11.1%
TELK	Long	11/1/2005	14.86	11/16/2005	16.98	250	14.3%
CEGE	Long	11/1/2005	5.33	11/16/2005	5.78	1500	8.4%
GTOP	Short	11/30/2005	8.1			1200
EXEL	Short	11/30/2005	7.87	12/6/2005	8.8	1200	-11.8%
ABGX	Short	12/7/2005	14.39	12/15/2005	21.8	700	-51.5%
CYTK	Short	12/7/2005	8.47	12/13/2005	7.62	1200	10%
MEDX	Short	12/16/2005	11.5	12/21/2005	12.65	800	-10%
IMCL	Short	12/29/2005	34.66

Stock Picks based on Elliott Wave

Stock	Long/Short	Entry Date	Entry Price	Exit Date	Exit Price	Profit/Loss
AMGN	Long	10/31/2005	75.96	11/28/2005	82.26	8.3%
C	Short	12/5/2005	48.76	12/12/2005	49	-0.89%
AA	Short	12/12/2005	28	12/21/2005	29	-3.6%
AMGN	Short	12/19/2005	78.05	12/22/2005	80.7	-3.4%
AMGN	Long	12/22/2005	81.05	1/12/2006	76.65	-5.4%

Other Stock Picks

Stock	Long/Short	Entry Date	Entry Price	Exit Date	Exit Price	Profit/Loss
GERN	Long	10/28/2005	8.74	11/4/2005	9.05	3.5%
MEDX	Long	10/28/2005	8.22	11/4/2005	9.3	13.1%

I am using an excel macro by Chris Mead to generate the tables. because of this html code is noticebly shorter than the one genereted by excel.

Tech Tags: Trading+System Technical+Analysis Trading Stock Stock+Picks Biotech Elliott Elliott+Wave Investment TELK CEGE GTOP IMCL CYTK MEDX ABGX EXEL AMGN AA C

Wondering about the market

Elliott Analysis posted on Forex Lab Notebook Blog suggests that S&P 500 could move to and above 1400 (~10% from the current level) in the next few months: “In short, the index will continue to rise in the next 1-6 month to 1400 or higher. Then it will drop to about 1000. Although it will have almost 20 years to complete the correction and it may stage a long recession, most likely the market decline will be relatively fast in the impulsive wave pattern”. I find this type of scenario somewhat disturbing since my systems have shown noticeable short bias in the last month or so. My model biotech portfolio only has two short positions at the moment (IMCL and GTOP). 10% move in S&P 500 would surely induce stop losses in both positions. I already had several short positions that were stopped out recently. And I am wondering if in this particular type of market that are having today my trading system simply generate sell signals prematurely. My plan right now is to keep the open positions and watch the market for a month or so. At that point I will re-analyze the system and will see if any tweaks are necessary. Meanwhile, if there are good long or short signals I will keep posting them. Categories: Technical+Analysis, Trading+System, Stock, Market, Biotech, Trading, Elliott+Wave, Elliott, S&P500, Trading+Signal, Market+Forecast