Saturday, January 14, 2006

Trading Summary

I have decided to organize the trades I talked about in the last few months. I report all my stock picks before the market opens on the corresponding yahoo message boards (TELK is mentioned on TELK message board and so on). My nick on MB is trading_signal. Usually I enter my positions at the market open. Position exits are also at the market open unless a pre-set stop-loss or stop-profit is hit during the day. To monitor performance of various trading systems I separate my positions based on the systems that have generated them. When I started posting I planned to create a model Biotech-Oncology portfolio based on several of my trading systems. Looking back I see that these systems could not generate enough signals to fill in a portfolio. The starting value of the portfolio was assumed to be $100K and each position is typically equivalent to $10K. In the future I will be adding several more systems that hopefully will allow me to generate enough biotech stock picks to keep a reasonable portfolio. In the table below each profit/loss is for a single position, equivalent ~1/10 of the total portfolio value. So, for example, 50% loss in ABGX translates to 5% portfolio loss. The second table monitors my picks based on Elliott analysis and the third keeps track of various other systems. Biotech-Oncology Stock Picks
Stock Long/Short Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price # Shares Profit/Loss
TELK Long 11/1/2005 14.86 11/11/2005 16.51 250 11.1%
TELK Long 11/1/2005 14.86 11/16/2005 16.98 250 14.3%
CEGE Long 11/1/2005 5.33 11/16/2005 5.78 1500 8.4%
GTOP Short 11/30/2005 8.1 1200
EXEL Short 11/30/2005 7.87 12/6/2005 8.8 1200 -11.8%
ABGX Short 12/7/2005 14.39 12/15/2005 21.8 700 -51.5%
CYTK Short 12/7/2005 8.47 12/13/2005 7.62 1200 10%
MEDX Short 12/16/2005 11.5 12/21/2005 12.65 800 -10%
IMCL Short 12/29/2005 34.66
Stock Picks based on Elliott Wave
Stock Long/Short Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price Profit/Loss
AMGN Long 10/31/2005 75.96 11/28/2005 82.26 8.3%
C Short 12/5/2005 48.76 12/12/2005 49 -0.89%
AA Short 12/12/2005 28 12/21/2005 29 -3.6%
AMGN Short 12/19/2005 78.05 12/22/2005 80.7 -3.4%
AMGN Long 12/22/2005 81.05 1/12/2006 76.65 -5.4%
Other Stock Picks
Stock Long/Short Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price Profit/Loss
GERN Long 10/28/2005 8.74 11/4/2005 9.05 3.5%
MEDX Long 10/28/2005 8.22 11/4/2005 9.3 13.1%
I am using an excel macro by Chris Mead to generate the tables. because of this html code is noticebly shorter than the one genereted by excel.
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Sunday, January 08, 2006

Wondering about the market

Elliott Analysis posted on Forex Lab Notebook Blog suggests that S&P 500 could move to and above 1400 (~10% from the current level) in the next few months: “In short, the index will continue to rise in the next 1-6 month to 1400 or higher. Then it will drop to about 1000. Although it will have almost 20 years to complete the correction and it may stage a long recession, most likely the market decline will be relatively fast in the impulsive wave pattern”. I find this type of scenario somewhat disturbing since my systems have shown noticeable short bias in the last month or so. My model biotech portfolio only has two short positions at the moment (IMCL and GTOP). 10% move in S&P 500 would surely induce stop losses in both positions. I already had several short positions that were stopped out recently. And I am wondering if in this particular type of market that are having today my trading system simply generate sell signals prematurely. My plan right now is to keep the open positions and watch the market for a month or so. At that point I will re-analyze the system and will see if any tweaks are necessary. Meanwhile, if there are good long or short signals I will keep posting them. Categories: , , , , , , , , , ,
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