Monday, October 31, 2005

Buy signals for CEGE (Cell Genesys) and TELK (Telik)

There are buy signals for CEGE and TELK today. Therefore I will add CEGE and TELK to my model Oncology-Biotech portfolio. The portfolio starts with $100,000 on Nov 1st and will eventually contain 5-15 mostly oncology companies. I will monitor the performance of the portfolio and will compare it to benchmark indexes periodically. Buy 1500 shares of CEGE at the open Nov 1st Buy 500 shares of TELK at the open Nov 1st Stop loss for each position -10% of the purchase price.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

AMGN (Amgen) forecast using Elliott Waves

This is an example of purely technical analysis. I will add analyses like this to my blog once in a while. The predictions for Amgen here are separate from my Biotech-Oncology model portfolio picks. Consider this forecast as an attempt to develop a trading approach based on the Elliott wave theory. Keep in mind that the future can not be predicted. Be skeptic about any forecasts. Amgen Possible trading strategy Since the outlook is bullish long term and short term (except Scenario 3), the following trading strategy seems reasonable. 1. Enter market at open 31-Oct-2005 (if the price above 72.37). Stop loss 72.30. Take profit 99.90. 2. If the price moves below 72.37 resistance, enter short at 72.30 with the stop loss 73.20 and profit target 58.0. 3. Follow the market and define which scenario is in development. 4. It is important to watch AMGN pattern closely in the next 2-3 days to minimize losses if a long positition is open but Scenario 3 will tend to be the real scenario. Detailed Elliott analysis with description of Scenarios 1 through 3 can be found in the comments.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

Two Buy Signals: GERN and MEDX

I will stick to my original plan and will start building my model portfolios on November 1st. But because my system is generating new signals already (I guess that it is not smart enough to figure out that it is still October), I post these two "unofficial" buy signals that came today. Buy GERN and MEDX at the open October 28th, stop loss for both positions -10% of the purchase price. These two positions are not part of my Biotech-Oncology portfolio unless the signal is still valid on November 1st. In that case I will add them in at the corresponding open price on Nov 1st and will make a note in my blog.

Sunday, October 23, 2005

Plans

Starting November 1st I plan to present signals from three different trading systems. The first system focuses on Biotechnology Sector with high emphasis on companies developing oncology drugs. The second attempts to predict IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology). And the third attempts to predict QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares) behavior. While not limited to trading cancer stocks, the first system is heavily biased towards them. Here are examples of the cancer stocks that the system may trade: ABGX AVII CVM ICOS MOGN PRCS ABGX BIOM CYTK IMCL MYGN REGN AEZS BIVN DNA IMGN NEOL SGEN AGEN CEGE DNDN IMMU NERX SPPI ALTH CELG ENMD INGN ONCY SUPG AMGN CEPH EXEL ISIS ONXX TELK ANPI CLN GENZ KOSN OSIP TRGNY APHT CNVX GERN LGNDE OXGN UTHR APPX CRGN GHSI MAXM PCYC VRTX ARIA CRIS GNTA MEDI PDLI XCYT ARQL CRXA GTOP MEDX PGNX XOMA ARRY CTIC GTXI MLNM PHRM ZGEN Disclamer. This Blog is ONLY designed to monitor my trading systems. It is NOT meant to give advice on when to buy or sell certain securities. Use the information found in this blog at your own risk. I am in no way responsible for your decisions in the stock market.

Trying to post something to my Trading System Blog

Hi, I am starting this blog to help me record the results of my stock trading systems. Let's see if anybody will actually read my blog :). Trading Signal